open_eGo Scenarios
Three scenarios were defined and used for the intended power flow simulations.
Apart from one status quo scenario representing the German electrical energy
system in 2015, two future scenarios were defined employing exogenous assumptions.
For Germany, the installed generation capacities of the status quo scenario
were taken from the power plant list of the Open Power System Data project
[opsd-conv], [opsd-res] (State: 01-01-2016). Whereas the 2035 scenario is
based on publicly available information and methods of the
Netzentwicklungsplan (NEP) Strom 2025, erster Entwurf [NEP2015] .
Out of several NEP scenarios, the so-called “B1-2035” was chosen;
it is characterized by a high renewable energy expansion and an increased share
of natural gas [NEP2015]. The third scenario pictures a future electrical
energy system powered to 100% from renewable energy and is mainly based on the
100% RES scenario of the e-Highway2050 - Modular Development Plan
of the Pan-European Transmission System 2050 [ehighway2050].
In order to build a 100% energy system in Germany 13,GW of gas fired power
plants were removed (see: [christ2017] and [FlEnS]).
Table Characterization of scenarios by key parameters shows the scenario specifications and
significant characteristics of all three scenarios.
Table 1 Characterization of scenarios by key parameters
| |
Status Quo |
NEP 2035 |
eGo 100% |
|---|
| Share of RES in installed capacity |
46,46% |
70,02% |
100,00% |
| Net electricity consumption (Twh) |
506 |
506 |
506 |
| Annual peak load (GW) |
87,01 |
87,01 |
87,01 |
| Share of renewable energy in el. Consumption |
27,31% |
65,80% |
100,00% |
For the calculation of the Share of renewable energy in el. consumption the assumption-a where used.
Table Installed generation capacities in GW for Germany and marginal costs for
conventional generation in 2014€/MWh , divided by scenario and technology/fuel
displays the resulting installed electrical capacities in Germany and marginal
cost assumptions for each scenario divided by the different technologies and fuels.
Table 2 Installed generation capacities
| Technology |
|
status quo |
|
NEP 2035 |
|
eGo 100 |
|
|---|
| |
GW |
EUR/MWh |
GW |
EUR/MWh |
GW |
EUR/MWh |
|
| Nuclear energy |
12 |
4,68 |
0 |
5,48 |
0 |
– |
|
| Lignite |
23,3 |
10,78 |
9,1 |
17,64 |
0 |
– |
|
| Hard coal |
31,5 |
14,95 |
11 |
24,79 |
0 |
– |
|
| Natural gas |
27,9 |
32,3 |
33,5 |
41,93 |
0 |
56,05 |
|
| Oil |
4,5 |
41,02 |
0,5 |
68,86 |
0 |
– |
|
| Waste |
1,7 |
31,65 |
0 |
39,93 |
0 |
– |
|
| CHP $<$ 10 MW |
0 |
23,96 |
8,2 |
31,11 |
0 |
31,63 |
|
| Other conventional generation (mixed fuels) |
2,6 |
31,65 |
2,4 |
39,93 |
0 |
– |
|
| Total conventional generation |
103,5 |
|
64,7 |
|
0 |
|
|
| Wind onshore |
|
41,3 |
|
88,8 |
|
98,4 |
|
| Wind offshore |
|
5,6 |
|
18,5 |
|
27 |
|
| Photovoltaic |
|
38,5 |
|
59,9 |
|
97,8 |
|
| Biomass |
|
7,2 |
|
8,4 |
|
27,8 |
|
| Hydro power |
|
3,9 |
|
4,2 |
|
4,3 |
|
| Other renewable generation |
|
1,4 |
|
1,2 |
|
2,2 |
|
| Total renewable generation |
|
97,9 |
|
181 |
|
257,5 |
|
| Pump storage |
9,3 |
|
12,7 |
|
12,8 |
|
|
| Total generation |
210,7 |
|
258,4 |
|
270,3 |
|
|
The table